Politics & Markets:

Food for the world (1): There's enough for everyone!w

»Agriculture is entering a golden age«. The basis of this thesis is the growing world population and its purchasing power. But both factors have been overestimated. There will always be hunger as a result of crop failure now and again in parts of the world. But even with increasing food consumption the resources of global agriculture should be sufficient over the long term to supply enough food for all.

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Food for the world (2): A question of productivity

Soil and water are the fundaments of agricultural production and food supply. And seen from a global perspective we have hardly any reserves of both. This is why agriculture must use both these resources very much more efficiently. Otherwise we won’t be able to provide the world with enough food, a goal that demands, above all, political and institutional support for small-scale farmers in Asia and Africa.

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Meat consumption: What will Europe be eating in 20 years?

The proportion of older people increases in most European countries while population sinks, the number of Moslems continues to increase: Factors not without influence for meat consumption. A likely consequence of the changes is less meat consumed in total but more poultry meat on our plates.

 
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Demand: China and India - no Eldorado for our farm produce

Every third person in the world lives in India or China. But a glance in the statistics indicates that European agriculture will probably wait in vain to supply food there. Neither meat, grain nor milk is in demand to any great extent. And the foods that are imported - palm oil and soybeans – are in short supply in Europe too.

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Politics & Markets:

EU agricultural policy: What`s in store after 2013

The new EU Commissioner Dacian Ciolos has to bring a multi-tonal orchestra into accord. While plenty of excitement during the tuning-up can be expected, the disparities mean from the start that results will represent »reform« rather then »revolution« and decisions will not be applied from today to tomorrow but be more of a gliding descent towards 2020.

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Crude oil: How much is left in the world?

Short term, there will be no scarcity of oil. Current price is perhaps more affected by speculation than a measure of actual shortage. But taking the medium term outlook, oil prices will have to increase even when sufficient new sources are discovered. The costs per recovered barrel increase steadily because the more easily harvested crude oil wells are exhausted.

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Agribusiness:

The family and the farm business

A family business naturally comprises two components: the family and the business. To bring both under a single roof and at the same time avoid mixing them too much isn’t always easy. The distribution of roles and tasks within the family and the business has to be repeatedly tested and corrected depending on the phase of life.

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Research and Innovation:

Electronics: What the manufactures are working on

In numerous ways electronics has grown to become a major future-oriented trend in agricultural engineering. Data collection no longer represents a problem, although its processing is still difficult because of the many manufacturer-specific solutions involved. This is why, when it comes to investment decisions, the aim should be a uniform standard for communication and data exchange systems.

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Politics & Markets:

Agricultural Products: Farm product price trends to 2018

It is difficult to foretell how markets will be when looking years ahead. Despite this, the FAO and OECD have attempted to highlight the most important trends for the coming nine years. Their work shows that the prices for cereal and oilcrop grains are expected to rise slightly – although not by more than 20 – 30% over the average of the years 1997 – 2006. And the prognosis for milk and meat predicts even smaller price rises. A return to the price levels of 2007/08 is expected by none of the experts.

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Simply everything depends on oil!

Just now, grain and oilseed prices are substantially affected by the crude oil course and this of course means that there are no high prices just now for agricultural raw materials. With a crude oil price of 70 US$/barrel, 95 €/t for grain or 250€/t for rapeseed at the ethanol plant or oilmill would be competitive. Only when the crude oil course on the international exchanges clambers higher prices for biodiesel rapeseed and ethanol grain can increase.

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Agribusiness:

The hunt for farmland reserves

Arab and Asian investors are acquiring huge areas of agricultural land in the developing countries – not only as capital investment or for political influence but above all for food supply on their own domestic markets. But many of the ambitious projects still have to be implemented by the investors.

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Ireland: Low-cost milk from grass

Irish dairy farmers’ secret of success is their outstanding grassland management that keeps inputs so low that their full production costs are the lowest in the EDF comparisons. Even with this year’s extremely low milk prices this policy ensures a relatively good position for future survival.

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Research and Innovation:

Wheat: A new plant breeding boost

After a few years of neglect wheat appears attractive once again for researchers and companies. Above all in the USA and Australia it could be that genetechnology has a key role in this resprect. This could damage the competitiveness of European wheat. But only if there are markets that accept such GM wheat.

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Electricity from the desert

The world demand for energy is constantly increasing and dependency on fossil fuels is rising at the same time. Solar electricity could contribute towards stilling the enormous hunger for energy. If the gigantic Desertec project provides what it promises, North Africa and the Middle East could in the future supply substantial amounts of renewable energy to Europe.